BIG MARLEY’S UFC 235 DRAFTKINGS BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Vegas. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to win a lot of money from this week and that I can not wait to chase those huge prizes. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $50k goes to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only tournament for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I won my very first seat into it a week and will attempt to get my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw 100 or so entries at that $50k prize, then I will probably take a couple shots in the Qualifier. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good quantity of play into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a couple plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Jon Jones — $9,600
Jones is a lock for the money game lineup this week at his -800 betting line. I’ll take that free square and proceed. He must dominate this battle and he can complete it on the feet or the floor. I expect him to score over 100-points and I am totally fine with paying $9.6k for it. When I’m making lineups, I would like to try and get at least 10x from each fighter. Together with Jones being 9.6k, I want at least 96 points from him. That is how I look at it. If this was a 3-round fight and I didn’t think Jones would find a finish then perhaps he only scores 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I wouldn’t want that. Nonetheless, this is a potential 5-round fight, and I do expect Jones to dominate, so that price tag is fine with me. For GPPs, I think you can get away from Jon Jones since he’ll be quite highly possessed. If he’s 50% owned by the area and he only scores 85-90 DK points, then that will kill off half the area since that wouldn’t be enough points to place him that $50k lineup.
GPP play of the week — Ben Askren — $9,000
If Ben Askren wins this battle it will be out of his wrestling. He is among the greatest wrestlers in MMA history and today he’s finally getting an opportunity from the UFC after dominating every organization he has been in. He won’t want to strike for long against Robbie Lawler, therefore that I expect him to shoot takedowns straight away and chain wrestle until he receives them. Once he gets top control there isn’t going to become a lot Robbie can perform on the ground and he must take a beating as long as it is on the mat. On DraftKings, every takedown is 5 points compared to 0.5 points for a substantial strike. A guy like Askren can go out there and receive 10 takedowns at 15-minutes and that’s what makes him a fantastic play if he can come up with the victory.
Underdog drama of this week — Diego Sanchez — $7,100
This really isn’t the Diego Sanchez of old, but I believe he still has what it takes to conquer Mickey Gall. On the toes, the quantity alone from Sanchez should win it for him there as long as he does not get pumped out. The chin of Diego is what I worry about most nowadays, but Gall is not much of a striker and I don’t see him becoming knockout. In addition, I don’t know that Gall can get takedowns, and that I think Sanchez would be the more likely man to be on top if the struggle hits the ground. There is A entry Gall’s best chance at a win and Sanchez has never been filed. We have to have underdogs in our DK lineups and at $7.1k Diego allows us to pay up for those guys like Jon Jones or Ben Askren. If he can grind a decision triumph here I presume he can get 10x that wages and when we could get a win from him in the cheap salary, then I think we will probably be in line for that $50k win if we hit our additional five spots.
Fade of this week — Anthony Smith ($6,600)
I might wind up using each fighter since I’m making so many lineups this week, but Anthony Smith is the guy I need the very least of. I attempt to get a favorite for you guys as my fade of the week but I don’t believe there are any need to fade favorites this week. Rather, I am going with the 1 fighter I do not think stands a opportunity. I think that a fluke KO is the only path to victory for Smith and that he actually does not have the 1 punch/kick power that it might take to pull off. I would be shocked when Smith pulled off the upset this week and if I had been making 20 or less lineups, then he’d be a simple fade.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I am 58-37 for +177.62u (+$17,762) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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